As concerns over the state of the Canadian real estate market abound, a new survey says nearly half of Canadians are unsure about their ability to afford their homes if rates rise by as little as two percentage points.
The survey commissioned by the Bank of Montreal study finds 43 per cent believe an interest hike would either hamper their ability to pay or leave them on unsure footing.
Regionally, residents of Alberta were the least concerned, with 73 per cent saying that rising rates would not affect their ability to afford their homes, while residents of British Columbia were the most concerned. Just 48 per cent B.C. residents are comfortable in their ability to handle higher rates.
The survey results come as banks and economists warn about the rising debt levels of Canadian households.
It also comes as some of Canada’s biggest banks have started raising variable mortgage rates, even though the Bank of Canada’s overnight interest rate remains unchanged.
Earlier this week, both RBC and TD raised the posted rates on five-year mortgages.
That could signal the end of the era of cheap borrowing that has encouraged many Canadians to take on houses they may not have been able to otherwise afford.
BMO anticipates that the Bank of Canada will begin increasing interest rates from the current one per cent next year.
Fixed or variable?
Many in the mortgage industry have recently advised homeowners to take on the previously less-popular variable mortgage rates as interest rates had remained low since the end of the recession, when the Bank of Canada pushed its overnight rate down to an emergency low 0.25 per cent.
But looking ahead, some industry watchers say now is the time to consider switching to lock in longer term rates with shortened amortization periods.
“Our interest rate outlook now projects that fixed mortgage rates will trump variable. While the decision ultimately depends on the individual, the low rate combined with a shorter 25-year amortization will significantly strengthen household financial stability,” said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.
In a report issued last week, Porter and colleague Benjamin Reitzes argued that with the U.S. recovery gathering steam, central bankers on both sides of the border are becoming more comfortable with the economy and less so with historically depressed interest rates.
Already, financial markets have priced in a near 50 per cent chance that Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will start hiking his one per cent policy setting before the year’s end, they noted.
Both Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Carney have recently flagged the danger to the economy of Canadians becoming increasingly indebted, mostly through taking advantage of low rates to buy homes or take out home equity loans. Household debt to disposable annual income is above 150 per cent and likely to rise further toward the 160 per cent level that preceded the housing collapse in the U.S., say analysts.
With files from The Canadian Press